AGP Executive Report

Myanmar Humanitarian Crisis: A new UN-backed picture shows Myanmar’s emergency worsening as conflict, displacement, and economic collapse reinforce each other, with 16.2 million people needing aid in 2026 and displacement now becoming recurring rather than temporary. Aid & Food Security: UN warnings point to shrinking humanitarian funding and rising hunger, with Myanmar listed among serious hunger concerns in a FAO-WFP hotspot report covering 13 countries. Online Gambling Crackdown: Myanmar authorities permanently deactivated 143,409 SIM cards linked to online gambling and blocked gambling apps via IP restrictions, alongside shutting down mobile wallet accounts and taking legal action. Cross-border Crime Link: A UNODC-linked report highlights how Southeast Asia’s drug trafficking and scam centres are increasingly run by the same criminal groups, with Myanmar tied to the wider regional pattern. Thailand Anti-Scam Push: Thailand reported arrests of 30,000 scammers and action against 1,450 proxy firms, while also expanding probes into illegal crypto mining tied to electricity theft. Malaysia-Bangladesh Dealmaking: Malaysia and Bangladesh pledged deeper cooperation on trade, investment, labour migration, energy, AI and semiconductors, with Bangladesh pressing Malaysia to reopen its labour market and speed recruitment. Rohingya Diplomacy: Malaysia and Bangladesh said they will work through ASEAN mechanisms to seek a lasting Rohingya solution, including engagement with Myanmar authorities. Crypto Compliance Pressure: South Korea urged FATF to remove minimum thresholds in the Travel Rule, which could raise compliance demands for crypto transfers across borders.

Rohingya Regional Talks: Malaysia and Bangladesh pledged to tackle the Rohingya crisis through ASEAN mechanisms, including engagement with Myanmar authorities, as PM Anwar Ibrahim and Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman met in Putrajaya. Labour Migration & Trade: The leaders also pushed for faster, more transparent hiring of Bangladeshi workers, labour market access, and lower recruitment costs, while discussing deeper economic cooperation and support for Bangladesh’s RCEP bid. Myanmar Online Gambling Crackdown: Myanmar permanently deactivated 143,409 SIM cards tied to online gambling, shut illegal financial accounts and mobile wallets, blocked 102 gambling sites/apps, and moved against promoters. Cybercrime Risk for Myanmar: Myanmar remains on FATF’s “black list” for high-risk jurisdictions, with enhanced due diligence urged while countermeasures are considered if progress stalls by October 2026. Cross-Border Security & Trade Route: The military said it regained Khampat town on the Kalay–Tamu route, a key Myanmar–India border trade hub, after phased operations. Mekong Tourism Forum: Myanmar hosted Mekong Tourism Forum 2026, focusing on people-centred tourism, community benefits, and regional cooperation. Cyber Fraud Warning: INTERPOL flagged a sharp rise in cybercrime across Asia-Pacific, with phishing and AI-enabled scams driving losses.

Myanmar–India Trade Route Security: The Tatmadaw says it has regained control of Khampat town on the Kalay–Tamu border trade route, after phased operations that also recaptured multiple villages and the Yazagyo Reservoir, aiming to reopen and secure the corridor. Electricity for Yangon’s Economy: A Yangon Region Hluttaw lawmaker urged both short- and long-term plans for stable power supply, warning that rotating outages are hitting industry and daily life, and pushing for faster solar, wind and waste-to-energy development plus grid upgrades. Mobile Phone Tax Compliance (CEIR): Myanmar’s CEIR system is set to start in the first week of March 2026, with phone users needing to activate approved SIMs by March 31 to keep devices working, while imported phones must be registered after taxes. Rohingya Displacement and Aid Pressure: UNHCR again asked Bangladesh to arrange more land for new Rohingya shelter sites, as camp crowding rises amid declining funding; separately, Thailand began issuing non-national ID cards to displaced persons from Myanmar to improve work access and reduce fraud. Cross-Border Labor and Migration: Thailand provided compensation to Myanmar workers affected by a 2025 construction collapse, while Myanmar nationals in Thailand and the region continue to face livelihood and legal inclusion challenges. Regional Business Diplomacy: President U Min Aung Hlaing’s China visit highlighted new cooperation deals, including a Myanmar–China investment and trade networking summit and talks on launching a satellite for agriculture and weather monitoring.

Fuel Policy & Transport: Myanmar’s odd-even driving rule and fuel-saving measures drew criticism, with officials saying the move is precautionary amid global shipping disruptions rather than a domestic fuel shortage. Mobile Tax Compliance: The CEIR system is set to start in the first week of March 2026, with phone users needing approved SIM activation by March 31 to keep using devices. Electricity Supply in Yangon: A Yangon Hluttaw lawmaker urged both short- and long-term plans for stable power, pushing faster alternative energy and upgrades to substations and transmission lines to protect industrial output. China Business Ties: President Min Aung Hlaing’s China visit highlighted new cooperation initiatives, including possible satellite plans for agriculture and weather monitoring, plus factory tours such as Unitree Robotics. Infrastructure & Safety: Thailand temporarily halted work on a northern train tunnel after a scaffolding collapse killed two workers, including a Myanmar national. Cross-border Trade & Security: Reports say Myanmar forces regained control of Yazagyo Village and the Yazagyo Reservoir, a key site for irrigation and power, as the Kalay–Tamu route is targeted for reopening. Regional Humanitarian Pressure: Bangladesh renewed calls at the UN for Rohingya repatriation, while UNHCR warned funding cuts are worsening conditions for displaced families.

Myanmar-China Economic Push: President U Min Aung Hlaing toured Shanghai Lingang’s investment zone and visited a robot manufacturing plant in Hangzhou, while also discussing space-tech cooperation, including a possible Myanmar-China satellite for agriculture, environment and weather monitoring. Energy & Industry in Yangon: A Yangon Region Hluttaw lawmaker urged a stable, full electricity supply for the economic hub, calling for faster solar, wind and waste-to-energy development plus upgrades to substations and transmission lines. Cyber & Fraud Crackdown: Authorities reported arrests of 16 people in Yangon over alleged online fraud equipment and a separate probe into a grey Chinese crypto network linked to illegal mining, with large suspicious transactions flagged. Regional Trade & Diplomacy: Myanmar’s president reiterated deeper cooperation with China under the Belt and Road and the “Pauk-Phaw” partnership, while global coverage also highlighted Bangladesh-UK talks on trade and investment and renewed UN calls for Rohingya repatriation. Conflict & Humanitarian Pressure: UN reporting again spotlighted record grave violations against children in 2025, underscoring the wider humanitarian strain across conflict zones. Food Security Watch: FAO/WFP warned acute hunger could worsen in 13 hotspots between June and November, driven by conflict, economic shocks, funding cuts and El Niño.

Myanmar–China Diplomacy: President Min Aung Hlaing wrapped up a five-day state visit to China, stressing “Pauk-Phaw” fraternal ties and pledging deeper cooperation, including new deals across transport, HR development, public health, media, science and technology, plus support for Myanmar’s development and agricultural quarantine access. Cybercrime & Online Fraud: The president also called for global action against cyber gambling and telecom fraud, urging stronger cross-border law enforcement and public awareness. Security Crackdown in Yangon: Authorities arrested 16 Myanmar nationals in Kamaryut Township over alleged online fraud equipment and links to Chinese customers, including use of Starlink devices and large numbers of phones. Regional Refugee Pressure: Bangladesh renewed its call at the UN for early Rohingya repatriation to Myanmar, citing heavy burdens on Bangladesh hosting nearly 1.2 million Rohingyas. ASEAN–Russia Trade Talks: ASEAN leaders met in Kazan and agreed on documents to deepen Russia–ASEAN cooperation through 2030, with a focus on stability and economic integration. Energy/Industry Spotlight: Myanmar’s China visit also included tours of robotics and new materials firms in Hangzhou, signaling interest in technology partnerships.

Myanmar-China Diplomacy: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing wrapped up his first state visit to China (June 15-19), touring China Railway Construction and riding the Fuxing high-speed train, while Beijing endorsed his leadership and both sides signed new cooperation deals, with bilateral trade hitting $19.4bn in 2025. ASEAN-Russia Summit: ASEAN and Russia adopted the Kazan Declaration to expand cooperation across 16 areas through 2030; Myanmar attended via the foreign ministry after missing top-level ASEAN meetings. Human Rights Watch: A UN report says grave violations against children hit a record in 2025, with government forces identified as leading perpetrators for the first time. Rohingya Pressure: Bangladesh’s foreign minister Shama Obaed Islam urged stronger international action at the UN, calling for accountability, conflict prevention and sustained support for Rohingya repatriation. Border Security: Bangladesh plans to fence parts of its Myanmar border as Arakan Army control in northern Rakhine reshapes the security landscape. Detention Alarm: China detained Myanmar researcher U Min Zin, with rights groups calling for release and due process. Public Protest Crackdown: Myanmar moves to criminalise “Roses of Hope” activities tied to Aung San Suu Kyi’s 81st birthday, amid renewed “proof of life” demands.

Myanmar-China Deal Push: President Min Aung Hlaing’s first state visit to Beijing wrapped with new cooperation agreements and a visit to China Railway Construction Corporation, as Xi Jinping endorsed deeper infrastructure and “pauk-phaw” ties; Regional Diplomacy: ASEAN and Russia adopted the Kazan Declaration to expand cooperation across security, trade, energy, digitalization and connectivity through 2030, with Myanmar among participating delegations; Rohingya Humanitarian Pressure: Bangladesh’s Shama Obaed urged stronger UN action to protect civilians and back safe, dignified Rohingya repatriation, while a new Rohingya-led report warns newly arrived refugees face aid lockouts and worsening survival conditions in Cox’s Bazar; Food Security Watch: UN agencies warned acute hunger will worsen in 13 hotspots between June and November 2026, listing Myanmar among countries at significant risk amid conflict, funding cuts and climate shocks; Cybercrime & Scams: INTERPOL reported a sharp rise in cybercrime and online scam operations across Asia-Pacific, with Myanmar named among countries where “scam compounds” generate huge illicit proceeds; Business/Trade Context: UN-linked reporting also highlighted Myanmar’s economic outlook pressures, including a World Bank cut to GDP growth forecasts amid new gas developments.

Myanmar-China Corridor & Junta Legitimacy: China’s Xi Jinping told Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing Beijing’s “friendship” is for all Myanmar people, while tying support to protecting China-Myanmar Economic Corridor projects like Muse–Mandalay rail and Kyaukpyu port, as observers read the “talks” language as political hedging. Regional Trade Diplomacy: Russia hosted ASEAN leaders in Kazan and adopted the Kazan Declaration plus energy, culture and a 2026–2030 action plan, with Myanmar included in the strategic partnership push. Food Security Shock: UN food agencies warned acute hunger will worsen in 13 hotspots between June and November 2026, listing Myanmar among the countries at rising famine risk amid funding cuts and conflict. Energy Costs Pressure: The IEA said Southeast Asia still faces vulnerabilities from fossil-fuel import reliance and geopolitical risks, noting Myanmar and the Philippines lag on electricity access. Women & Peacebuilding: Bangladesh’s Shama Obaed Islam urged UN support for women’s participation in peacebuilding and stronger humanitarian financing, echoing wider regional conflict impacts. Cross-border Crime & Scams: Research highlights employment scams forcing victims into online fraud hubs in Myanmar/Laos/Cambodia, while Thailand police arrested eight over an illegal ID-card scheme involving Chinese and Myanmar nationals. Tourism Links: Cambodia and Myanmar agreed to advance Siem Reap–Yangon sister-city ties to deepen tourism cooperation.

Myanmar-China Diplomacy: China’s Xi Jinping told Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing that ties are a priority and backed development and security cooperation during his Beijing state visit, where both sides witnessed the signing/exchange of 18 agreements and MoUs. Regional Trade & Security: Russia hosted ASEAN leaders in Kazan to deepen trade, investment and strategic cooperation, with Myanmar among the delegations amid Western pressure over Ukraine. Border & Trade Links: Bangladesh said it is building barbed-wire fences along sensitive Myanmar border areas to curb killings, infiltration and drug/arms trafficking, while Myanmar’s president-to-China talks also underline cross-border economic priorities. Detentions & Civic Space: Fortify Rights urged China and Myanmar to release U.S. scholar Min Zin and detained Myanmar-linked researcher Adam Castillo or provide due process, warning of shrinking civic space. Hunger Watch: UN food agencies warned acute hunger will worsen in 13 hotspots, including Myanmar, as conflict, funding gaps and climate shocks push more people toward famine risk. Energy Access Gap: The IEA said Myanmar still lags on electricity and clean cooking access in Southeast Asia, highlighting vulnerability to fossil-fuel import shocks.

Myanmar-China diplomacy: China and Myanmar issued a joint statement after leader talks in Beijing, pledging mutual support on core security concerns and pushing ahead with the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, including Kyaukpyu port and Muse-Mandalay rail, plus cooperation in mining, digital economy, AI, agriculture, oil and gas pipelines, and power grid links. Infrastructure cooperation: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing visited China Railway Construction Corporation in Beijing, signaling further infrastructure collaboration and highlighting past projects like the Yangon-Thanlyin and Dala bridges. Detention spotlight: US scholar Min Zin, a Myanmar analyst and UC Berkeley doctoral candidate, was detained in China on alleged espionage, with his think tank calling for his immediate release ahead of Min Aung Hlaing’s China visit. Rakhine repatriation talks: Bangladesh foreign minister Khalilur Rahman said dialogue between Myanmar authorities and the Arakan Army is key to creating conditions for Rohingya repatriation, stressing security as the main factor. Regional trade push: Russia hosted ASEAN leaders in Kazan to deepen economic and strategic cooperation, while Indonesia’s chamber expects trade with Russia to double to $10bn annually. Cybercrime risk: Interpol reported cybercrime accounts for about a third of recorded crimes in parts of Asia, with scams and phishing driving the surge. Food insecurity warning: FAO-WFP flagged worsening acute hunger in 13 “hotspots,” with funding gaps and conflict as main drivers, including risks in Myanmar-linked regional instability.

Myanmar-China Deal Push: President Min Aung Hlaing’s state visit to Beijing delivered 18 new cooperation agreements covering trade, transport, infrastructure, disaster relief, health, science and media, with Xi Jinping urging steady progress on the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor and pledging support for Myanmar’s development and security needs. Border Trade & MSME Facilitation: Talks with Premier Li Qiang focused on reopening border trade gates, improving border trade management, boosting quarantine support for Myanmar farm and MSME exports, and expanding cross-border law enforcement to curb online gambling and telecom fraud. Energy & Export Policy Watch: Thailand said it will keep its ban on refined oil exports for now, citing Middle East volatility and the need to protect energy supply security; limited shipments to Laos and Myanmar continue. Climate Risk for Myanmar-linked Region: UNICEF warned nearly all children worldwide face climate hazards, with about 1.1 billion exposed to at least three overlapping risks; it flags high risks for children in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan. Mine Impact Warning: A UN report said anti-personnel mines still cause casualties and long-term rights damage, with Myanmar among the highest casualty countries. Diplomatic Signals: Russia announced Putin will host ASEAN leaders in Kazan on June 17-18, with Myanmar sending a delegation amid sanctions pressure.

Myanmar–China State Visit: President Min Aung Hlaing met Xi Jinping in Beijing, with Xi backing Myanmar’s leadership and urging steady progress on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor; the two sides signed 18 cooperation deals covering trade, transport, disaster relief, health, science, media and free-trade facilitation. Border Trade Watch: China’s Premier Li Qiang and Min Aung Hlaing also discussed reopening border trade gates and improving border trade management, including quarantine support for Myanmar farm and MSME products and steps to ease cross-border commerce. Regional Development Finance: Laos and China signed agreements for seven Mekong-Lancang Special Fund projects worth about US$3.31m for areas like agriculture, water resources, public health and poverty reduction. Climate Risk for Myanmar: UNICEF warned nearly every child faces climate hazards, with Myanmar among the highest-risk countries and millions exposed to multiple overlapping threats that can disrupt health, schooling and survival. Armed Conflict Snapshot: A PRIO study says state-based armed conflicts hit 65 in 2025, with Myanmar listed among countries facing more than one conflict at the same time. Trade Facilitation Signal (Thailand–Myanmar): Reports say Myanmar’s import licensing and foreign-exchange controls remain bottlenecks, while reopening the Myawaddy checkpoint is expected to support a second-half trade recovery.

China-Myanmar Economic Corridor: Xi Jinping told Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing in Beijing that the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor is a “flagship” Belt and Road project, urging steady progress on key projects with safety to boost Myanmar’s economy and livelihoods. Diplomatic Boost: Xi also endorsed Min Aung Hlaing’s political leadership as the two leaders signed cooperation documents covering cross-border transport, free trade, disaster assistance, health and media. Trade & Security Focus: Analysts say Beijing will keep prioritising its strategic interests, including border security and resources such as rare earths, as China remains Myanmar’s top trading partner and investor. Inflation Pressure: The World Bank said Myanmar inflation is nearing 25% as fuel shocks tied to the US-Iran conflict compound the strain from the civil war, while it cut its growth outlook for the April-starting fiscal year. Energy Outlook: Myanmar’s President’s Office says offshore gas reserves could reach up to 106 trillion cubic feet across Ayeyarwady and Tanintharyi blocks, with plans for additional deepwater projects. Regional Business Context: India’s IREL is reportedly in talks with Rosneft to study rare earth samples from Siberia’s Tomtor deposit, highlighting intensifying competition for critical minerals. Consumer/Logistics: foodpanda Singapore launched a Sheng Siong partnership, offering on-demand grocery delivery from 43 outlets starting 22 June.

China-Myanmar Trade Push: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing arrived in Beijing for a five-day visit with Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, aiming to strengthen trade and investment ties as Naypyidaw seeks renewed economic engagement. Energy Outlook: Myanmar says it has found promising offshore gas reserves, with Ayeyarwady and Tanintharyi blocks estimated at up to 106 trillion cubic feet, supporting plans for additional deepwater projects. Currency Pressure: A new analysis warns Myanmar’s overvalued exchange-rate system is worsening economic deterioration by distorting exports, imports and incentives for informal trade. Scam Crackdown Spillover: The US-led operation targeting scam compounds in Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar reported over a million accounts taken down, millions of dollars in frozen crypto and dozens of arrests, highlighting the region’s fraud economy. Cyber Fraud Tactics: China’s authorities released cases of online rumor-mongering using AI deepfakes, including fake police impersonation and fabricated “Myanmar scam compound” videos. Business & Finance Risk: An American businessman tied to the American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar was detained after the group flagged suspicious financial transactions, underscoring compliance risks for foreign-linked firms. Human Capital & Mobility: Finland is investigating a student recruitment scam that allegedly charged Myanmar applicants up to €10,000 for study and residence promises. Digital Economy: A fintech-focused report says Myanmar’s mobile finance growth is constrained by sanctions, conflict and currency instability, but still matters for financial inclusion. Natural Resources for Growth: Myanmar’s rainy-season tree-planting target of 21.36 million saplings is framed as a climate and stability investment.

Myanmar–China Diplomacy: President Min Aung Hlaing arrived in Beijing for a five-day state visit at Xi Jinping’s invitation, his first trip abroad since taking office, as China signals renewed “pauk-phaw” cooperation. Foreign Trade Targets: Myanmar is aiming for foreign trade above US$29bn in FY2026-27, with exports at US$15.3bn and imports at US$14.7bn, according to state reporting. Exchange Rate Pressure: A new analysis warns Myanmar’s multiple overvalued exchange rates are hurting exports, import availability, and overall economic recovery prospects. Cybercrime & Scams: A U.S.-led crackdown says scam centers across Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar were hit, with over 1 million accounts removed and millions of dollars in crypto frozen. Drug Trafficking Link: UNODC reports synthetic drug seizures in East and Southeast Asia hit records in 2025, pointing to deeper links between illicit drug trade and the region’s scam economy, including Myanmar-linked lab activity. Student Scam Case: Finnish authorities are investigating a recruitment scam that allegedly charged Myanmar students up to €10,000 for study and residence promises. Environment & Jobs: Myanmar plans to plant 21.36 million tree saplings during the 2026 rainy season, while the broader business climate remains strained by fraud risks and policy uncertainty.